Mamata's Moment Of Doubt Signals A Shifting Tide In Bengal

Is Mamata Banerjee shaken? Her recent statement on Kolkata’s flooding suggests so. “If I can come back again, I will show what I can do,” the West Bengal chief minister said while inaugurating a Durga Puja celebration. She said “If” and not “When”— a telling choice of word that hints at uncertainty over Trinamool Congress’s prospects in the upcoming Assembly elections due in March-April next year.

The incessant rains turned Kolkata into a floating city. Nine people reportedly died due to electrocution. What stood out was Mamata’s decision to criticise the CPM and the BJP, parties that have little to do with the city’s civic mess. She has been in power since 2011. The Kolkata Municipal Corporation is also under her party’s control, with close aide Firhad Hakim serving as mayor since 2018. Hakim also doubles up as cabinet minister for urban development, municipal affairs and housing. The CPM has been out of power for nearly 15 years, and the BJP, despite its best efforts, is far from forming a government in the state. If the city’s infrastructure is crumbling or proves inadequate, the blame lies squarely with the state government and the civic body.

The moot point begging for an answer is: why shift the blame to parties that have no say in the state’s affairs? And more importantly, why couldn’t she implement her plans for Kolkata all these years? There is a pattern to her behaviour. During natural calamities like cyclones and their devastating impact on coastal areas, she is quick to blame the centre for not releasing enough funds. But the question remains, what has she done with the funds that were released? And has she built a resilient system to face such emergencies?

Cyclones and rains do not arrive unannounced. Has Mamata built a system to tackle such emergencies? Even her most ardent admirers would hesitate to give her the perfect 10 she dreams of. Her government’s response to disasters often appears reactive rather than proactive, and the lack of preparedness is glaring.

The problem with Mamata Banerjee is her ambition. She has long harboured dreams of becoming the prime minister and keeps one eye fixed on the chair in New Delhi. But her acceptance beyond her party as a national alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi is negligible. Her constant shifting of stance makes it hard to tell whether she is with the Opposition or not. Her Delhi ambition has meant neglect of the state she is supposed to govern with full commitment. Modi emerged as the nation’s choice for prime minister in 2014, largely due to his work as Gujarat’s chief minister. His performance spoke for itself. Mamata, despite having served as chief minister for longer than Modi’s 13-year stint in Gujarat, cannot claim the same national resonance.

One probable reason for Mamata’s lacklustre performance could be her insecurity. Much of her time and energy is spent ensuring there’s no opposition to her, neither from within nor outside. She remains wary of the BJP’s growth and the possible revival of the Left Front and Congress. To counter that, the Trinamool Congress has often resorted to violence and political murders to silence cadres and workers of rival parties. Moreover, her close associates have repeatedly found themselves embroiled in corruption scandals, from the infamous Saradha scam to the teachers’ recruitment scam, just to name two. Mamata may continue to live a modest life and wear inexpensive saris and hawai chappals, but frugality alone cannot sustain a political party. With few industries left in West Bengal, political funding is hard to come by. Allegedly, scams have become a convenient way to keep her party afloat.

The easiest route to power is through vote-bank politics. Her government stands accused of encouraging illegal immigration from Bangladesh. Over the past 15 years, the Muslim electorate has grown significantly in many constituencies, especially those near the international border. It is no surprise that the Muslim population in West Bengal exceeds 25 per cent, compared to India’s national average of 14 per cent. Their exact numbers remain unknown, as there has been no census since 2011. But in several constituencies, Muslim voters account for 60 per cent or more. Naturally, her focus has been on maintaining popularity among Muslim voters. She is often accused of indulging in appeasement politics. That explains why no strict action has been taken against Firhad Hakim, who, as minister and mayor, bears direct responsibility for Kolkata’s flooding woes.

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Her critics argue that she has mastered the art of deflection, blaming others for failures that are clearly her own. Her supporters, meanwhile, continue to believe in her street-fighter image and her ability to bounce back. But the ground reality is shifting. The urban middle class, once her silent ally, is increasingly vocal about civic decay. The youth, disillusioned by the lack of opportunities, are looking elsewhere. And the rural voter, long considered her stronghold, is no longer a guaranteed vote bank.

As the 2026 state elections draw near, all eyes will be on West Bengal’s voters. Mamata Banerjee’s use of “If I can come back to power…” is a clear signal that even she is not sure of Trinamool Congress securing a fourth consecutive term.

Ajay Jha is a senior journalist, author and political commentator.