In 2025, the shadow of US president Donald Trump looms larger than ever — not only over American politics but across the globe. Yet, as Trump seeks to export his brand of right-wing populism and "America First" policies, the impact has been paradoxical: rather than fueling a conservative wave, his influence is driving voters in liberal democracies to rally around center-left incumbents and reject Trumpian politics.
From Australia to Canada , and with echoes in Europe and Asia, the "Trump effect" is backfiring, catalysing a leftward shift that is reshaping the global political landscape.
The Trump Effect
Trump's return to the White House has been marked by aggressive foreign policies, including tariffs on allies and open disdain for multilateralism.
These actions, intended to project US strength and inspire ideological allies, are instead generating a "rally around the flag" (where populations unite behind their leaders in response to an external threat or crisis) effect for center-left leaders abroad.
As Trump's rhetoric and policies reverberate through international politics, the left has increasingly positioned him as a "boogeyman", rallying voters by warning of the dangers his brand of politics poses to democracy, social stability, and international norms.
In country after country, conservative parties that mimic Trump's style or align with his policies are being punished at the ballot box.
Australia: Labor's landslide
In Australia, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese 's center-left Labor Party secured a dramatic second-term victory, defying months of unfavorable polls and a resurgent conservative opposition.
The opposition Liberal Party, led by Peter Dutton , had embraced Trump-style rhetoric-attacking "woke" politics, threatening drastic public sector cuts, and echoing Trump's hardline immigration stance.
Dutton’s campaign even earned him the nickname " Temu Trump " from critics.
But as Trump imposed tariffs on Australian exports and disparaged US allies, Australian voters recoiled.
The so-called "Trump factor" became a liability for conservatives, with even Liberal Party spokespeople conceding that Trump's influence had been "devastating" for their campaign.
Labor's victory was powered by voters' desire for stability, economic pragmatism, and a repudiation of imported culture wars. “We do not need to beg, or borrow, or copy from anywhere else,” Albanese said in his victory speech on Saturday night. “We do not seek our inspiration overseas. We find it right here, in our values and in our people.”
Canada: The anti-Trump bump
A similar story unfolded in Canada, where the center-left Liberal Party, initially trailing in the polls, staged a remarkable comeback.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre 's campaign borrowed heavily from the MAGA playbook, attacking "wokeness" and using derogatory nicknames for opponents.
However, Trump's imposition of tariffs and inflammatory remarks about Canadian sovereignty triggered a national backlash.
The Liberals, led by Mark Carney, capitalised on this sentiment, framing themselves as defenders of Canadian interests against Trump's overreach.
Pre-election polling flipped dramatically in favour of the Liberals, who went on to win their fourth consecutive election.
The lesson was clear: Attempts to ride Trump's coattails or mimic his style are now a "booby trap" for conservatives in liberal democracies.
Greenland's cold shoulder to Trump
A striking example emerged in Greenland, where Trump’s public musings about annexing the territory-sometimes suggesting force-became a central issue in the 2025 elections.
The centrist party that advocated for gradual independence from Denmark, and was seen as best positioned to resist Trump’s advances, won decisively. The party’s leader, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, openly labeled Trump "a threat to our political independence" a stance that resonated with voters wary of foreign interference.
The 2025 Greenland election became a referendum on this external pressure and the island's future sovereignty.
Pro-independence sentiment surged as Greenlanders reacted strongly against Trump's ambitions.
Germany and beyond: The limits of Trump’s influence
The Trump effect is not uniform everywhere.
In Germany, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won the national election, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) posted its strongest results since World War II.
Trump celebrated the outcome, framing it as a victory for his worldview.
However, the German context is more complex: The CDU’s win was less about embracing Trumpism and more about fatigue with the incumbent coalition and domestic issues. The far-right's rise, while concerning, is tempered by the CDU’s commitment to mainstream conservatism and the challenges of forming a stable government.
Elsewhere, Trump's impact is felt in subtler ways.
In Singapore, for example, the ruling party’s campaign emphasized stability amid global uncertainty, including Trump’s trade war with China. This focus on steady governance helped the incumbents increase their share of the vote, underscoring that voters in many countries now view Trump's unpredictability as a risk rather than an inspiration.
Why is Trump’s influence backfiring?
Several factors explain why Trump's efforts to shape foreign elections are backfiring:
The result is a striking reversal of recent trends.
Where anti-incumbent and right-wing populist waves once seemed ascendant, the "Trump effect" is now reviving social democratic and centrist coalitions. Analysts describe this as a "boomerang" effect: Trump's attempt to export his brand of politics is instead strengthening the very forces he seeks to undermine
From Australia to Canada , and with echoes in Europe and Asia, the "Trump effect" is backfiring, catalysing a leftward shift that is reshaping the global political landscape.
The Trump Effect
Trump's return to the White House has been marked by aggressive foreign policies, including tariffs on allies and open disdain for multilateralism.
These actions, intended to project US strength and inspire ideological allies, are instead generating a "rally around the flag" (where populations unite behind their leaders in response to an external threat or crisis) effect for center-left leaders abroad.
As Trump's rhetoric and policies reverberate through international politics, the left has increasingly positioned him as a "boogeyman", rallying voters by warning of the dangers his brand of politics poses to democracy, social stability, and international norms.
In country after country, conservative parties that mimic Trump's style or align with his policies are being punished at the ballot box.
Australia: Labor's landslide
In Australia, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese 's center-left Labor Party secured a dramatic second-term victory, defying months of unfavorable polls and a resurgent conservative opposition.
The opposition Liberal Party, led by Peter Dutton , had embraced Trump-style rhetoric-attacking "woke" politics, threatening drastic public sector cuts, and echoing Trump's hardline immigration stance.
Dutton’s campaign even earned him the nickname " Temu Trump " from critics.
But as Trump imposed tariffs on Australian exports and disparaged US allies, Australian voters recoiled.
The so-called "Trump factor" became a liability for conservatives, with even Liberal Party spokespeople conceding that Trump's influence had been "devastating" for their campaign.
Labor's victory was powered by voters' desire for stability, economic pragmatism, and a repudiation of imported culture wars. “We do not need to beg, or borrow, or copy from anywhere else,” Albanese said in his victory speech on Saturday night. “We do not seek our inspiration overseas. We find it right here, in our values and in our people.”
Canada: The anti-Trump bump
A similar story unfolded in Canada, where the center-left Liberal Party, initially trailing in the polls, staged a remarkable comeback.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre 's campaign borrowed heavily from the MAGA playbook, attacking "wokeness" and using derogatory nicknames for opponents.
However, Trump's imposition of tariffs and inflammatory remarks about Canadian sovereignty triggered a national backlash.
The Liberals, led by Mark Carney, capitalised on this sentiment, framing themselves as defenders of Canadian interests against Trump's overreach.
Pre-election polling flipped dramatically in favour of the Liberals, who went on to win their fourth consecutive election.
The lesson was clear: Attempts to ride Trump's coattails or mimic his style are now a "booby trap" for conservatives in liberal democracies.
Greenland's cold shoulder to Trump
A striking example emerged in Greenland, where Trump’s public musings about annexing the territory-sometimes suggesting force-became a central issue in the 2025 elections.
The centrist party that advocated for gradual independence from Denmark, and was seen as best positioned to resist Trump’s advances, won decisively. The party’s leader, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, openly labeled Trump "a threat to our political independence" a stance that resonated with voters wary of foreign interference.
The 2025 Greenland election became a referendum on this external pressure and the island's future sovereignty.
Pro-independence sentiment surged as Greenlanders reacted strongly against Trump's ambitions.
Germany and beyond: The limits of Trump’s influence
The Trump effect is not uniform everywhere.
In Germany, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won the national election, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) posted its strongest results since World War II.
Trump celebrated the outcome, framing it as a victory for his worldview.
However, the German context is more complex: The CDU’s win was less about embracing Trumpism and more about fatigue with the incumbent coalition and domestic issues. The far-right's rise, while concerning, is tempered by the CDU’s commitment to mainstream conservatism and the challenges of forming a stable government.
Elsewhere, Trump's impact is felt in subtler ways.
In Singapore, for example, the ruling party’s campaign emphasized stability amid global uncertainty, including Trump’s trade war with China. This focus on steady governance helped the incumbents increase their share of the vote, underscoring that voters in many countries now view Trump's unpredictability as a risk rather than an inspiration.
Why is Trump’s influence backfiring?
Several factors explain why Trump's efforts to shape foreign elections are backfiring:
- Economic self-interest: Trump’s tariffs and “America First” policies directly harm the economies of US allies, making voters wary of leaders who align too closely with Washington.
- National Identity: Trump’s open disregard for allies’ sovereignty and his calls for countries like Canada to become the “51st state” have galvanised national pride and resistance.
- Rejection of imported culture wars: Many voters in liberal democracies reject the polarisation and divisive rhetoric associated with Trumpism, preferring pragmatic solutions to local issues.
- Desire for stability: In an era of global uncertainty, voters are gravitating toward leaders who promise steady governance and multilateral cooperation, rather than disruption and confrontation.
The result is a striking reversal of recent trends.
Where anti-incumbent and right-wing populist waves once seemed ascendant, the "Trump effect" is now reviving social democratic and centrist coalitions. Analysts describe this as a "boomerang" effect: Trump's attempt to export his brand of politics is instead strengthening the very forces he seeks to undermine
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